Predicting the Greek Elections: “Live” Evaluation

The table below presents the Twitter-based predictions along with the last week’s polls and the exit polls. The table will be updated once the actual results come out.

There were two exit polls (see “EP#1” and “EP#2” in the table) released at 19:00. Both of them provided the voting shares for every party as a range of values {minimum, maximum}. I considered their average as their actual “prediction”, making sure that all the adjusted voting shares sum up to 100.

For the case of the polls (see “P#1-8” in the table), I replaced all “undecided”, “blank” and “NA” voters’ voting shares and assigned them proportionally to the eight major political parties, as well as the “Others” (minor parties), again making sure that they sum up to 100. The Twitter-based method that I used is denoted as “TB” (“Twitter-Based”). “MAE” refers to the Mean Absolute Error of every method/poll. The results presented at the moment (00:00, UK time) are based on the 88.83% of the total votes.

Results TB EP#1 EP#2 P#1 P#2 P#3 P#4 P#5 P#6 P#7 P#8
SYRIZA

36.34

37.16

37.69

37.78

35.06

37.08

37.84

34.47

36.01

36.99

34.83

37.08

ND

27.85

28.31

25.13

25.69

30.34

31.40

25.44

29.19

30.66

29.57

30.34

31.40

Potami

6.02

5.90

7.24

7.56

7.08

6.49

6.39

7.05

7.18

5.54

6.74

6.49

XA

6.30

6.42

7.24

7.05

5.06

5.33

8.52

5.62

5.35

5.65

6.18

5.33

KKE

5.48

5.45

5.23

6.05

6.18

4.75

5.39

5.95

4.87

5.43

5.62

4.75

PASOK

4.69

5.10

4.72

5.04

4.49

4.63

4.26

4.74

4.01

5.54

6.18

4.63

ANEL

4.71

3.65

4.02

3.53

3.48

3.48

2.76

4.19

4.26

3.88

3.37

3.48

KIDISO

2.45

2.86

2.71

2.52

2.47

2.32

2.13

2.75

1.70

3.21

2.81

2.32

Others

6.16

5.15

6.03

4.79

5.84

4.52

7.27

6.06

5.96

4.21

3.93

4.52

MAE

0.00

0.49

0.84

1.05

0.95

1.06

1.16

0.71

0.88

0.88

1.15

1.06

The opinion polls were aggregated from here.

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